Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts

Landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) generate extreme waves, introducing significant property, personal, and financial risks damage. Accurate simulations of the sea state during these storms are used to support risk damage assessments design coastal structures. However, TCs a complex surface gravity wave field as result inherently strong temporal spatial gradients wind forcing. This complexity is challenge model. To advance our understanding performance models on eastern seaboard United States, we conduct an assessment four hindcast products, three based WAVEWATCH-III other using Wave Modeling project, for six major landfall between 2011–2019. Unique was comprehensive analysis products against array fixed buoys that high quality data. The reveals general tendency underestimate height (Hs) around peak TC. when viewed individual TC basis, distinct Hs error patterns evident. Case studies hurricanes Sandy Florence illustrate bias patterns, likely resulting from various mechanisms including insufficient resolution, improper input source term parameterization (e.g., drag coefficient), omission wave–current interactions. Despite added challenges simulating fields in shallow waters, higher resolution Information Study National Centers Environmental Prediction (ST4 only) hindcasts perform relatively well. Results this study variability generated demonstrate value in-situ validation data such north Atlantic buoy array.